5 Day Management Development Programme on Business Forcasting
(Applied Time Series Forecasting Models For Finance, Business And Economics)
Dr. Sarat Chandra Dhal
Programme Coverage (Introduction and Scope)
Modern business and financial environments in India have witnessed rapid progress and transformation owing to fast changing behaviour of consumers, savers, investors, financial markets and institutions amidst globalisation, economic reform and technological revolution. Financial markets operate in the real time environment supported by online trading platform and seamless information processing and thereby, posing challenges to company’s balance sheet and income management a complex dynamic process. With the adoption of modern information technology, sales and business orders of companies occur now continuously in the time domain.
A key feature of the modern business environment is that industries across the spectrum have to contend with uncertainty and risks, which could evolve continuously and dynamically. In order to be competitive and successful, organisations have to continuously monitor, predict and assess their business and financial performances and the risks and uncertainties therein as a continuously and regularly. This in turn requires advanced quantitative techniques based on high frequency time series data and information arising from business and finance operations. Investment banks and financial institutions in particular exclusively rely on the time series modelling and forecasting techniques for predicting asset returns and managing portfolio risks. Business analytics professionals use time series techniques for monitoring and assessing their business and financial performances as compared with peers so that early warnings and signals are used for devising appropriate corporate strategies.
It is against this backdrop that this course on modern time series forecasting models for business and finance is introduced to help working executives and professionals. At the same time, researchers and independent analysts can benefit from this course. The course will enable professionals to get practical idea of how some fundamental theories in finance and business work in the real world. The course will cover the fundamental concepts required for the description, modelling and forecasting of time series data relating business and financial performance. The hallmark of this course will be the emphasis on real-world data sets and a practical laboratory component and hands-on sessions based on some popular software packages including the EVIEWS.
The objective of this course is to provide business managers, business analysts and finance professionals practical knowledge of forecasting business and financial indicators and the underlying risks. The course will be useful for them in various ways:
- Scientific decision making required for success in an increasingly competitive, complex and dynamic business and financial environments;
- Assess the impact and effectiveness of business and financial strategies in the shorter to medium-longer horizon.
- Evaluate and measure the underlying risks to business and financial performances continuously and compare the same with peers in the industry in order to devise early warning signals and innovative change and management strategies.
Programme Content (Main topics / headings)
- Introduction to Time Series Data Analysis for Business, Economics and Finance;
- Trends and Cycles, Deterministic and Stochastic Trends, Stationary Time series, Random Walks, Unit Root Hypothesis, Efficient Market Hypothesis
- Forecasting with Uni-variate models: Box-Jenkin’s Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA
- Modelling and Forecasting with Granger Causality Hypothesis, Error Correction and Co-integration Models (ECM),
- Multivariate Forecasting with Vector Auto-regression (VAR) and Structural VAR (SVAR) models
- Multivariate Forecasting with Vector Error Correction and Co-integration (VECM) model
- Measuring Risk with Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedacity models (ARCH/GARCH).
- Structural Break Analysis
This course will have broadly two components: (i) Theoretical Lessons of various time series models and (ii) Practical and Hands-on Sessions.
Theoretical lessons will cover trends and cycles, stochastic trend, random walk and unit root test hypotheses, Granger Causality, single equation error correction and co-integration models (ECM), multivariate vector error correction model (VECM), vector auto-regression model (VAR), structural VAR (SVAR), and risk models (ARCH and GARCH).
Practical sessions will cover, inter alia, uni-variate and multivariate forecasting of company sales, stock prices, financial market turnover, interest rates etc. Empirical estimation of various parity conditions will be demonstrated. Risk pricing models will demonstrate assessing portfolio risk management. Participants will be trained for using various statistical software packages such as:
- GRETL, and
||Who may attend
This programme can cater to the needs of people from various professions:
- Finance Professionals
- Financial Analysts
- Financial Market Analysts
- Broking Firms and Equity Analysts
- Fund Managers
- Business Planners,
- Business Analysts,
- Marketing Managers,
- Marketing Researchers,
- Business Executives, Managers
- Research Scholars
||Programme Director and Faculty
- Programme Director: Dr. Sarat Chandra Dhal
- Guest Faculties from Premier Institutions
||Venue IIM Rohtak Campus, Rohtak (NCR Region of Delhi).
||Duration Five Days (15 Sep – 19 Sep 2014)
||Application for Nomination
Application or nomination for participation along with programme fee must reach the PDP Office latest by 15 days’ before the date of the programme. Programme fee is to be paid by Demand Draft/Cheque in favour of “Indian Institute of Management Rohtak” payable at any Bank at Rohtak. One can pay the fee through Net Banking. In case of NEFT (to be provided on request), kindly intimate the PDP office with payment details by sending an email.
Online enrolment and payment option is also available. Please access the website, www.iimrohtak.ac.in and click ‘Executive Training (MDP)’ under the ‘Programmes’ head. Click
‘Program Calendar’ and open this particular programme for details. Fill in the enrolment form
and send it by email. You can pay online.
The completed Enrolment Form and payment made by Cheque/Demand Draft/Net Banking
/Online mode must reach the below mentioned address at least two weeks prior to the commencement of the MDP. However, if seats are available, one may register one week before the commencement of the MDP.
Administrative Officer – PDP
Indian Institute of Management Rohtak
M.D.U. Campus, Rohtak 124001
Phone: 01262 228528
E-mail: email@example.com / firstname.lastname@example.org
Please note that confirmation of participation will be provided only on receipt of programme fee by PDP Office. For all other details on administrative matters please refer to the ‘Guidelines for Participants’ at our website or e-mail to email@example.com